Climate change doesn’t invent new problems for Mauritius’ energy system; it amplifies existing constraints—heat derating, cyclone downtime, coastal exposure, rainfall-driven renewables variability—while pushing peaks up. Keeping the lights on and hitting 2030 goals will hinge on weather-resilient hardware, smarter operations (forecasting, storage, demand response), coastal and drainage defenses, and cooling strategies that cut electric load on the hottest days. The prize is a system that stays bankable and reliable even as the climate gets rougher.
What changes, what breaks, and what must adapt
Overview
Mauritius still runs a largely fossil-fuelled power system. In 2024, the country generated 3,417.6 GWh, of which 81.8% came from non-renewables (fuel oil/diesel and coal) and 18.2% from renewables, mostly bagasse, with smaller shares from hydro, solar PV, wind and landfill gas. Peak demand on the main island hit 525.7 MW in February 2024 and later climbed to an all-time 567.9 MW on 5 Feb 2025. The grid is an islanded 66 kV network with no interconnectors, and major oil-fired plants (Fort George, Fort Victoria, St Louis) sit in the Port Louis area. Meanwhile, sea level around Mauritius has been rising at about 4.5–4.7 mm/yr.
The climate signals are clearly visible
Mauritius’ climate diagnostics and global assessments point to hotter temperatures, more erratic rainfall with intense downpours, damaging tropical cyclones, and ongoing sea-level rise—each with direct energy-sector implications. Cyclone Belal (Jan 2024) brought curfews, port/airport disruption and tens of thousands of power outages, a live stress test for generation, networks and fuel logistics.
How shifting climate patterns hit operations, output and viability
1) Thermal generation (fuel oil/diesel and coal IPPs)
Operational sustainability. Heat cuts engine and turbine performance; authoritative studies and regulators report ~0.5–1% drop in gas-turbine output per °C rise in ambient temperature (reciprocating engines also derate at high temperatures). During cyclones, grid trips and access issues halt plants even if units aren’t physically damaged. Fuel chains concentrate at the coast and port; when Belal triggered closures and flooding, it constrained marine, road and terminal operations.
Sectoral output. Hot spells and storm days bring higher peaks while some thermal units are derated, increasing reliance on spinning reserve and load-shedding risk. Mauritius’ peak records in 2024–2025 coincided with very warm summer conditions, underscoring sensitivity to heat-driven cooling demand.
Long-term viability. More frequent weather-related shutdowns, port interruptions and heat derating raise steady-state O&M costs (spares, fuel and lube consumption, cooling upgrades) and the cost of reliability in an islanded system.
2) Biomass (bagasse) co-generation
Operational sustainability. Bagasse is seasonal and weather-sensitive. Drought reduces cane yields; storms flatten or waterlog fields—both shrink fuel availability to sugar-mill IPPs. Government analyses document declining cane area/productivity and policy moves to stabilise biomass supply.
Sectoral output. In 2024, bagasse remained the largest renewable contributor, but volumes vary with the harvest and rainfall, so extreme dry or wet years swing output and steam-to-power ratios.
Long-term viability. Without on-farm drought/cyclone resilience (irrigation, varieties, field wind-breaks) and diversified biofuel inputs, bagasse power faces greater inter-annual volatility, complicating the coal phase-out timetable.
3) Hydropower
Operational sustainability. Hydro is small but useful; it is directly tied to rainfall. Climate research shows extremes (flash floods or droughts) increase debris/sediment loads and make reservoir management harder, raising outage and spill risks.
Sectoral output. Wet months lift GWh; multi-month dry spells depress it—so year-to-year volatility rises as rainfall becomes more erratic.
Long-term viability. More variable inflows reduce dependable capacity; hardening spillways and flexible operating rules become necessary investments.
4) Solar PV
Operational sustainability. PV output drops with cell temperature; typical losses are ~0.4–0.5% per °C above 25 °C. Coastal sites also contend with salt-mist corrosion, addressed by IEC 61701 design/testing. Cyclones add wind-load/damage risk and prolonged cloud cover.
Sectoral output. Heatwaves and storm seasons increase intra-day volatility (hot but hazy or windy/rainy). Maintaining yield demands better ventilation, corrosion-resistant racking and rapid post-storm inspections.
Long-term viability. PV remains central to the 60%-by-2030 renewables goal, but will need cyclone-rated mounting, salt-resistant modules and storage to deliver firm evening supply as peaks creep upward.
5) Wind
Operational sustainability. Turbines cut out around ~25 m/s to protect hardware; cyclone gusts quickly push systems into safe shutdown or survival modes, so wind cannot be relied on during the windiest events.
Sectoral output. Normal trade-wind seasons deliver steady energy; cyclone weeks deliver little or none (by design), so storage and diversified siting are key. Mauritius’ Plaine des Roches (?9.35 MW) illustrates existing scale and exposure.
Long-term viability. Bankable wind build-out in cyclone belts leans on class-I turbines, robust O&M and insurance, all of which grow costlier with intensifying extremes.
6) Networks and operations
Operational sustainability. Mauritius’ 66 kV island grid, with many coastal assets, faces wind, flood and salt stress. Belal left ~40–44k households without power at points; access and safety constraints slow restorations. No interconnector means there’s no external balancing during crises.
Sectoral output. Faults, trips and protection operations during storms curtail generation even when plants are intact; after the storm, debris and saturated soils keep some feeders offline for days.
Long-term viability. Hardening (pole/tower design, flood-proof substations, coastal setbacks), advanced forecasting, and storage to ride through ramps become preconditions for meeting demand reliably in peak season.
7) Cooling demand and the “evening peak”
Operational sustainability & output. Hotter days = more air-conditioning, which pushes evening peaks higher and later. Mauritius’ record peaks in 2024–2025 reflect this broader pattern documented by the IEA for warming regions. SWAC (sea-water air-conditioning) now in planning for Port Louis could shave electric cooling load by using deep cold seawater.
Long-term viability. Without demand-side cooling solutions (efficient AC, district cooling, SWAC), the system must carry more peaking capacity and spinning reserve, raising costs.
8) Coastal exposure and fuel logistics
Operational sustainability. Many generation sites and logistics links (fuel tanks, jetties, coastal roads) sit near sea level. Faster-than-global sea-level rise around Mauritius amplifies tidal flooding and surge risk; class-3/4 cyclone warnings can shut Port Louis and the airport, delaying spares and fuel.
Long-term viability. Coastal defenses, elevated substations/tanks, and diversified fuel arrangements become part of prudent least-cost planning.
What this means for bankability and the 2030 targets
Mauritius has pledged 60% renewables and a coal phase-out by 2030. The physical climate makes that harder, not easier—but also makes it more necessary. Higher baseline O&M, more frequent shock losses, and insurance/reinsurance tightening raise the price of reliability. Investors are increasingly pricing extreme-weather risk across infrastructure globally, a trend flagged in recent risk and insurance reports.
In plain terms: how climate shifts map to energy outcomes
Hotter, stickier summers > higher evening peaks and heat-derated thermal units; PV runs but yields slightly less per °C and needs corrosion-resistant hardware near the sea.
Burstier rain & drought > hydro swings year-to-year; bagasse fuel varies with cane yields; storm debris complicates hydro and network operations.
Cyclones & surge > planned wind/PV shutdowns for safety; grid faults/outages; ports/roads closed, slowing fuel and spares; temporary dips in generation and sales.
Rising seas > coastal plants, warehouses and lines face higher flood/corrosion risk, increasing capex for hardening and insurance premia.
