Projections of GHG emissions and removals

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Mauritius has significantly intensified its commitment to reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. 

In 2015, the country's first Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) pledged a 30% reduction in GHG emissions by 2030, relative to a business-as-usual scenario. 

The updated 2021 NDC sets an even more ambitious target, aiming for a 40% reduction in overall GHG emissions by 2030 compared to the business-as-usual scenario. Achieving this enhanced target involves increasing the share of renewable energy in the energy mix to 60% by 2030, phasing out coal by the same year, diverting 70% of waste from landfills, supporting the adoption of electric vehicles to reach 15% of all vehicles by 2030, improving energy efficiency by 10% from 2019 levels, and promoting smart agriculture alongside extensive island-wide tree-planting programmes.

The Third Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC 3.0) of the Republic of Mauritius commits to a 40% reduction in GHG emissions by 2035, targeting 60% renewable electricity, coal phase-out, and 10% energy efficiency gains. It expands climate action to transport, industry, waste, and blue carbon, while strengthening adaptation to coastal erosion, drought, and disasters. The plan requires about USD 11.3 billion through 2050 and emphasises gender inclusion, youth engagement, and a just transition under the Climate Change Act 2020.

Below the BAU projection for net GHG emissions in 2030 including LULUCF, based on AR5 GWP  is presented (BTR1, 2024).

Sector-wise projections